New polling by Reuters/Ipsos reveals that former President Donald Trump maintains his lead in the Republican primary field, despite legal challenges. Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is experiencing a decline in support. The survey also highlights the contrasting views of Democrats and Republicans on the indictments and their opinions on Trump’s innocence or guilt.

Key Findings

Here are the key findings of the survey:

• Trump leads the Republican primary field with 47% support, while DeSantis’ backing has dropped to 13%.
• 45% of Republicans would not support Trump if he were convicted of a felony, while 35% would back him, and 20% are unsure.
• If convicted of a felony, 35% of Republicans would still support Trump compared to 19% who would support an unnamed candidate.
• 52% of Republicans would not support Trump if he were serving time in prison, while 28% would back him, and 20% are uncertain. Only 13% would support an unnamed candidate in prison.
• Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to vote for an unnamed candidate if convicted of a felony, and slightly more likely to vote for a candidate currently in prison.

Opinions on Criminal Charges

Opinions on the criminal charges differ between Democrats and Republicans:

• 56% of Democrats have heard extensively about the criminal investigation on Trump’s election efforts, compared to 38% of Republicans.
• 52% of Democrats have heard a great deal about the charges concerning sensitive government documents, compared to 41% of Republicans.
• Republicans are less likely to believe the criminal charges against Trump, particularly on soliciting election fraud, inciting the January 6th mob, and involvement in a fake electors scheme.
• 48% of Americans believe the charges are politically motivated, with 25% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans agreeing, especially 56% of Republicans strongly.

Guilt or Innocence on January 6th

Opinions on Trump’s guilt or innocence regarding January 6th:

• 64% of Americans have made up their minds, with 76% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans feeling settled on this matter.
• 80% of Trump’s primary supporters have also made up their minds about his guilt or innocence on January 6th.

Views on Trump’s Behavior

Republicans’ perspectives on Trump’s behavior:

• 53% of Republicans believe Trump acted appropriately on January 6th when speaking to his supporters, while 70% of his primary supporters share this view.
• 52% of Republicans believe he behaved appropriately when repeatedly claiming election fraud, and 77% of his primary supporters agree.
• Only 35% of Republicans think he acted appropriately when asking Mike Pence to reject Biden’s win, but 59% of his primary supporters believe he did.
• 61% of Republicans believe Trump displayed bad judgment on January 6th but isn’t criminally liable, similar to Trump’s primary supporters (57%). However, only 21% of Democrats agree with this view.

About the Study

The Ipsos poll was conducted between August 2-3, 2023, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. The sample consisted of 1,005 adults aged 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii, interviewed online in English. It included 444 Democrats, 355 Republicans, and 116 independents.

The survey used random sampling and post hoc weighting to make the sample representative of the U.S. population based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education, and political party affiliation. The credibility interval for all respondents is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Contact information for the study:

• Chris Jackson, Senior Vice President, U.S. Public Affairs – chris.jackson@ipsos.com
• Annaleise Azevedo Lohr, Director, U.S. Public Affairs